Capture Blog

Episode 27 – The Top 4 Enrollment Data Fallacies To Avoid

Human beings, as Dan Ariely wrote, are predictably irrational – and yes, that includes enrollment managers. From recruitment event feedback forms (good to meet you sampling bias), to predictive models (hello false causality), and all those early deposit incentives that only seem to encourage enrollment melt (good day Cobra Effect). If you have ever said this of your favorite slumping athlete: “(s)he’s due,” then you might be human, and thus subject to data fallacies. In this episode of The Weightlist, Thom and Brad list the 4 biggest data fallacies in enrollment management and how to avoid them. Along the way of course is beer and all the reasons you’ll ever need to eat that dessert first.


Thom: Cervecería Cuauhtémoc Moctezuma S.A. de C.V., Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico, Carta Blanco,

Brad: Utepils Brewing Company, Minneapolis, MN,, Copacetic Kölsch,


Stanford marshmallow experiment;

Softening Claims of the Marshmallow Test, Inside Higher Ed;

Data Fallacies the Avoid;

Haifa Israel Daycare Study: What Makes People Do What They Do?;

Regression Fallacy;

McNamara Fallacy;


Artist: Revolution Void,

Track: Effects of Elevation,

Used under Creative Commons Attribution License,, No revisions made.