Human beings, as Dan Ariely wrote, are predictably irrational – and yes, that includes enrollment managers. From recruitment event feedback forms (good to meet you sampling bias), to predictive models (hello false causality), and all those early deposit incentives that only seem to encourage enrollment melt (good day Cobra Effect). If you have ever said this of your favorite slumping athlete: “(s)he’s due,” then you might be human, and thus subject to data fallacies. In this episode of The Weightlist, Thom and Brad list the 4 biggest data fallacies in enrollment management and how to avoid them. Along the way of course is beer and all the reasons you’ll ever need to eat that dessert first.
Thom: Cervecería Cuauhtémoc Moctezuma S.A. de C.V., Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico, Carta Blanco, https://untappd.com/b/cerveceria-cuauhtemoc-moctezuma-heineken-carta-blanca/3561
Brad: Utepils Brewing Company, Minneapolis, MN, utepilsbrewing.com, Copacetic Kölsch, https://untappd.com/b/utepils-brewing-co-copacetic/1896248
Stanford marshmallow experiment; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment
Softening Claims of the Marshmallow Test, Inside Higher Ed; https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/06/06/new-findings-cast-doubt-marshmallow-test-success-claims
Data Fallacies the Avoid; https://www.geckoboard.com/assets/data-fallacies-to-avoid.pdf
Haifa Israel Daycare Study: What Makes People Do What They Do?; http://freakonomics.com/2013/10/23/what-makes-people-do-what-they-do/
Regression Fallacy; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_fallacy
McNamara Fallacy; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy
Artist: Revolution Void, http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Revolution_Void/
Track: Effects of Elevation, http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Revolution_Void/Increase_the_Dosage/revolution_void_-_04_-_effects_of_elevation
Used under Creative Commons Attribution License, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, No revisions made.