At Capture Higher Ed, we talk a lot about how accurate our predictive enrollment models are, and for good reason — Envision predictive model was about 98 percent accurate for last year’s predictions across the board. However, accuracy is not an end in itself.
Accuracy means you can have confidence in the information the predictive model produces. Our partners have that confidence, and they use the intelligence gained from their models to make important decisions that shape their classes — decisions like whom to admit, whom to award institutional aid and whom to target with communications.
But, ultimately, our partners purchase a model because they believe the information will help them make their class … and we have good news on that front. Now that the May 1 Decision Day has passed, we can assess how well our enrollment model partners are doing.
The answer: They’re doing very well indeed.
In fact, 65 percent of our partners with an Envision predictive model are up in deposits compared to last year and the average change in predicted yield is about a half percentage point increase.
This goes against the trend in higher education. Between 2015 and 2016, 55 percent of schools saw a decrease in enrollment according to the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Most schools also saw a decrease in yield. The average change was -1.3 percentage points.
So most of our schools with an enrollment model are looking to have a better year than last year, while most schools nationwide can expect to have a worse year than last year.
An Envision enrollment model not only provides an accurate picture of your class. It helps you get the class you need.
Capture’s Envision Predictive Model is the only comprehensive predictive engine on the market today. The patent-pending engine uses machine learning and a non-linear analytics tool set to accurately predict not only who will apply, but who will enroll.
Want to see how it works? Sign up today for a Free Envision Challenge.
By John Foster, Senior Data Analyst, Capture Higher Ed